Historical Performance Analysis:
Conversion Rates by Source: Analyze how many leads from each referral source convert into admissions. Look at historical data (e.g., month-over-month, year-over-year).
Revenue Contribution: Track the total revenue generated from each referral source, and calculate the average revenue per patient from each source.
Lead Quality: Assess the quality of referrals from each source. Are certain sources bringing in higher-value patients or repeat referrals?
Forecasting Models:
Trend-Based Forecasting: Use historical performance data to project future referrals and revenue from each referral source.
Seasonal Adjustments: Adjust forecasts for seasonality.
Weighted Forecasting: Apply weightings to referral sources based on the quality of leads they generate, giving higher weight to sources with stronger performance metrics.
Pipeline Forecasting:
Current Pipeline by Referral Source: Break down the current referral pipeline by referral source. For each source, track the number of referrals in each pipeline stage (Pending, Admit, Non-Admit).
Referral Source Growth Projections:
Referral Source Expansion: Factor in any initiatives to grow specific referral sources. Adjust forecasts based on anticipated growth.
Attrition or Decline in Sources: If any referral sources are declining in performance, account for that trend in future forecasts.
6. Patient Lifetime Value (PLTV):
Source-Specific PLTV: Calculate the lifetime value of patients by referral source. This will help prioritize which sources are most valuable for long-term revenue.
PLTV Forecasts: Include projected PLTV for each referral source in the forecast.
7. Cost of Acquisition (CAC):
Referral Source CAC: Track and forecast the cost of acquiring referrals from each referral source.
CAC vs. Revenue Forecasts: Ensure the forecast includes a breakdown of expected revenue versus CAC for each referral source, to assess profitability.